The security situation in the Middle East remains a key consideration for global supply chains. Security risks have increased following an incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving a Saudi-owned oil tanker, which resulted in the deaths of two seafarers. There have been no further announcements regarding the resumption of Suez Canal transits this week, and the wider situation continues to be monitored closely.
海運
The focus remains on the upcoming Golden Week holiday in China from 1 to 8 October, with the Mid-Autumn Festival from 25 to 27 September falling shortly beforehand. This combination is expected to increase demand through September as shippers bring forward cargo ahead of the holiday period. Carriers are continuing to manage capacity in preparation for the anticipated reduction in volumes during Golden Week, with blank sailings being introduced across several services.
Announced capacity withdrawals are currently expected to peak at approximately 27% in week 40 and 23% in week 41, reflecting carrier efforts to balance capacity ahead of Golden Week. The situation is being compounded by ongoing weather disruption in East China, which is affecting schedule reliability and equipment positioning. Some carriers are announcing port omissions at short notice to help recover schedules.
Customers should continue to expect schedule adjustments, changes to cut-off times, and reduced equipment availability through September. For example, the Premier Alliance FP2 service is not scheduled to call at Shanghai between 13 September and 25 October. The combination of capacity management, weather-related disruption, and upcoming holidays is expected to continue affecting schedule reliability throughout September.
Freight rates from China and the Far East remain relatively stable, with capacity management helping to support current levels, although some spot rates continue to fluctuate. Demand from the Indian Subcontinent remains strong, with rates continuing to increase due to ongoing schedule disruption and equipment availability issues.
空運
Air freight from China remains generally stable, although forward bookings are beginning to increase ahead of Golden Week. Customers are advised to secure capacity early, as reduced flight schedules and increased demand typically place upward pressure on rates during the second half of September. Capacity from Southeast Asia remains largely unchanged, with no significant disruption currently reported across the major export gateways. Sri Lanka’s peak season continues, while conditions across the wider Indian Subcontinent remain stable. UK export capacity remains tight in certain sectors, with fuel-related cost volatility continuing to influence carrier pricing.
Origin Ports
Weather continues to affect port and vessel operations across Asia. This year’s consecutive typhoons, Saudel, Bavi, and Dolphin, have all affected the Fujian Province coastline, with meteorologists describing the sequence as unprecedented. Forecasts indicate that typhoon activity will continue through September.
Shanghai and Ningbo have resumed operations following Typhoon Saudel, but significant congestion remains, with waiting times of up to nine days in Shanghai and six days in Ningbo. Transhipments at Ningbo are reportedly waiting for up to seven days, and congestion is not expected to ease significantly until after Golden Week. Yantian is experiencing waiting times of up to five days, while congestion at Hong Kong is beginning to stabilise although the port remains busy. Kaohsiung also experienced a temporary closure from 2 to 3 September due to tropical storm Saudel and high waves.
European Ports
Water levels on the Rhine continue to improve, although restrictions remain in certain areas. Congestion also continues across North European main ports due to schedule changes, vessel bunching, and the knock-on effects of earlier low water levels on the Rhine. Hamburg and Antwerp are particularly affected. Customers should continue to allow additional transit time for cargo moving through North European gateways as schedule reliability and port congestion remain under pressure.
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